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But there’s one problem: inflation, which usually builds as the economy picks up, is nowhere to be seen.
To understand why central bankers might be misreading what is going on, it’s crucial to understand the traditional model that central bankers use to weigh up what is going on in the economy. The Phillips Curve is the traditional relationship between inflation and unemployment.The Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter came up with the term “creative destruction” to explain the natural process whereby recessions and human ingenuity create innovations and these innovations produce “disruptive technologies”.Such disruptive technologies like Uber, Amazon, Whatsapp, Google maps or Netflix, destroy old industries, slash prices and change the ground rules.If, like me, you sometimes admit to binge-watching Netflix, take heart.I realize that there’s something unsettling about finding yourself at home in bed, under the duvet, Pringles in one hand, remote in the other, overdosing on ‘House of Cards’.Tama si pareng Tabahaba; kahawig ni Maricar Reyes 'yung babae.
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However, the relationship between unemployment and inflation appears to be breaking down, or at least shifting.
Unemployment is falling but general wages are not rising. All this new technology we are using forces us to reconsider a competing economic theory called “creative destruction”, which may now be the most useful way to look at our new Amazon-inspired world.
Interestingly, in a services economy like ours, the vast majority of employees are “middlemen”, taking a cut on a product or idea somewhere between when it is produced and when it is finally sold to the customer.
But the “gig economy” destroys that because technology destroys the middleman.
This problem is particularly acute for the so-called millennial generation — people born in the 1980s and early 90s.